Sunday, November 30, 2008

Long Journey .. Happy Ending

More than enough is being written about "moving forward" economic policies and strategies. Sifting through the expertise and differing philosophies to arrive at decisions with significant impact on institutions and the American worker is the primary, most critical and imminent job of Obama and his administration. It is daunting.

To me, it feels as though we - using John Mayer's lyrics - "are waiting on the world to change"





Waiting On The World To Change
me and all my friends we're all misunderstood
they say we stand for nothing and there's no way we ever could
now we see everything that's going wrong with the world and those who lead it
we just feel like we don't have the means to rise above and beat it
it's not that we don't care,
we just know that the fight ain't fair
so we keep on waiting
waiting on the world to change

When I first heard this song, I didn't like it, because I thought that it was a song about apathy. But I was wrong. The scenario it depicts is closer to a generation waiting actively in the weeds .. until the world is ready for change. Once it presents itself, we aggressively move in to seize the opportunity.

We are now moving in. We will soon be in a position to change America and perhaps in small ways, the world. We are not guaranteed success, but we are in a position to facilitate significant change.

This is profound, because times like these are rare, and are almost always preceded by crises and some degree of suffering. I am sure that many of our astute economists have charted this through history. Krugman surely has a clear vision of this in his head..it would help me if he would draw a graph of it, so that I could visualize it as well. While analyzing crisis and growth in history - worldwide, I would be most interested in the time frames associated with "street level" impact. My instinct is that crises build silently, unnoticed, for a period of time. Once markets are affected, a flurry of change is proposed and perhaps even acted upon, but the systemic change, with long term positive impact - occurs slowly, methodically, and most likely - painfully.

My point is this. People are craving change. Demanding a quick fix. Expecting one or a series of solutions that work, now. We are frantic. We are worried and although we generally can't impact the solution, we sincerely want to participate in it. This is good and economically healthy. But we will be disappointed and frustrated again, if we don't admit to ourselves that the change will not happen to us. We must change individually and collectively. It won't necessarily be fast, easy or painless. Financial healing that leads to prosperity needs to be grounded in a real monetary base, not a maximized credit line.

Its a "way of life" type change, folks. That is what is so hard about it. That is why people are scared.

You know how much we hate to hear our doctor say that, in order to take off those 20 lbs, we have to make some life changes. In order to put your addiction in remission, you have to change how you think, how you process stress, how you live day to day. That is hard to embrace. It has a high rate of failure.

Yes. Deregulation, corporate influence, greed, powerful lobbyists, government for the wealthy - all these were the drug dealers and pushers. We however, stood with our arm outstretched for the fix. We took the line of credit as long as it was offered, and now unfortunately, we're addicted to it.

So buckle in and get ready for the detox. Because, ultimately if we don't stop spending what we don't have we will wither away into an over aided citizen base in a weak economy that is subservient to other markets that were able to show restraint, and prosper long term. I am not of the opinion that this is how America will end this chapter. I firmly believe that as a group, we will make the life changes necessary to turn our family finances, those of our country and our businesses around to a healthy balance of reality and risk. But I caution you to ready yourself for the fight. Instant gratification, quick fix, "bail out" will not find its way into our solution, even though we will be tempted to seek it. As with any addiction, once we get through the detox phase, we will regain our ability to think clearly, fortify, act responsibly, prosper and most importantly, happily survive !

So dig deep. It can be done. The fight is worthy of its outcome. The scars will be transformed into pride and the feeling of accomplishment will be euphoric.



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