Wednesday, October 8, 2008

There is a roadmap but Paulson has lost it...

I'm confused.

Will this first of possibly - three bail out plans actually stimulate the credit markets? Even in the short term? We all recognize, that this "Bail Out" is a bandage to stop the bleeding in a capital market that is clearly broken and requires significant, long term fixes. But the enthusiasm rallying around the bail out was that it was necessary to "restore confidence". And without passage of the bill within "days" a catastrophic downturn in the economy would ensue. I am paraphrasing - but is that not what we heard? Today Paulson is back peddling and sidestepping. He is both right and wrong. Typical, in Washington.

He was right: We are continuing to see a significant downturn in our financial markets and the downturn is spreading globally.
He was wrong: The $700 billion check we just wrote, did not restore confidence. It perpetuated fear.

It appears, based on statements made today, that Paulson is continuing to scramble to gain support to infuse even more money into troubled financial markets. More banks "will fail" he warned. He acknowledged that the "flurry of emergency steps had done little to break the cycle of fear and mistrust, and pleaded for patience." Now he is pleading for patience ? If patience is what is needed to correct this mess, we should have left the markets alone, and demonstrated restraint to let them correct themselves. Capital markets do that you know, on their own, when, left alone, and allowed to react and adjust to the realities of consumer economic activity and the pace of trade.

Theories and principles don't have to get elected, they just prove themselves over time.

Is Paulson that egotistical and narcissistic to think that because he figured out how to make himself rich by taking advantage of gratuitous, and overwhelmingly dangerous economic loopholes in the capital market (for which he lobbied aggressively) that he can contradict himself to cover an error in judgment, with potentially grave national consequences, and not have people notice? Pleading for patience? Is he out of his mind? Did he not say, over and over again...there is no time - we must act now !

Is there no sane, reasonable, expert direction available. Is this problem solvable ?

$750 billion represents 5% of our GDP. This, on top of the Bush administration's $550 billion deficit, which will be given to Obama (hopefully), will put us on record with the highest percentage deficit relative to the GDP. In 1983 the deficit hit its peak at 6%. Numbers in the billions and trillions are hard for me to grasp. Percentages, however are much more clear. I am not an economist or financial expert at any level, all I really know is that small things cost more, large things have less value and my paycheck is not keeping up. But I am wondering about this:

If we could increase our GDP, our deficit would be less significant and therefore less threatening. That is a good thing, right? Why don't we provide more significant incentives to increase domestic manufacturing, limiting imports, and creating jobs. This could and should go well beyond energy. I have no idea how many trillions of dollars we spend importing goods and services from other countries but doesn't it stand to reason that if we regulated that activity, even slightly, we could materially change our cash flow in this country. Relatively quickly? I know that importing and exporting breeds healthy competition, resulting in lower consumer prices. But in the wake of this crisis, would it not be smart to fuel all, or at least most of that competition within our borders? We can export all day long, but do I really need to buy $200 worth of t-shirts and underwear for my son, that are made in China. 75% of the clothing in my household, is made and has been shipped from a far away land. This is crazy. I don't want to buy things that kids are forced to make. Overseas labor is cheap. I get it. But the system is wrong on an economic level and in some cases on a moral level. My neighbor, now, needs a second job...and he can sew.

This idea seems obvious, even to me. But what is not obvious, is why it is not being talked about by our candidates, our manufacturers or our "economic guru's" as part of the solution. I know the focus is on lending, but what are we really trading. Shouldn't we be producing something -more things here in the U.S. ?

I hope the next administration opens a US history book, and keeps it open in the oval office to the chapters on FDR economics. Talk about a road map ! The highway has changed slightly, it is much faster and more efficient, but the scenery is pretty much the same. We have fortified the financial health of this nation before. We can do it again. OK - we lost our heads for awhile, because they fell into our wallets which we keep in our back pocket and sit on...so we have some recovering to do. But we can recover.

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